16,000 New Yorkers could die from the coronavirus, according to Gates Foundation projections


The coronavirus pandemic could result in the death of 16,000 New Yorkers, Gov. Andrew Cuomo warned from Albany on Wednesday in his daily news conference.

To date, the virus has killed 1,914 across the state with 83,712 confirmed cases, according to the statistics shared Wednesday by Cuomo.

“There is a group that is funded by the Gates Foundation that projects 93,000 Americans will lose their life by the time this is over,” Cuomo said. “That model suggests 16,000 New Yorkers will pass away by the time this runs its course,” which could be through July, he added.

His U.S.-wide projection is less than what the White House gave on Tuesday, which estimated the number of deaths to be between 100,000 to 240,000 Americans.

The group referenced by the governor is the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), and their specific numbers for the two rates on Wednesday afternoon are 93,765 dying in the U.S. and 16,090 in the state. The institute takes into account the effects of social distancing measures until at least the end of May 2020.

Factors affecting the forecasts, which are updated every day at 6 a.m. (PST), are based on a wide range of data sources, including state health agencies, among others, a representative for IHME told MarketWatch.

The model, which only provides statewide projections, does not provide an estimate for the death toll in New York City, the epicenter of the COVID-19 crisis in the U.S.

As of Wednesday, the city has accounted for 1,096, or 57.2%, of New York state’s 1,914 deaths.

Meanwhile, at a separate news conference Wednesday, Mayor Bill de Blasio warned that the city is expected to run out of ventilators by Sunday. He said that to handle the surge of victims, New York City will need 2,500 to 3,000 ventilators over the next week and 65,000 hospital beds by the end of April. The city will be retrofitting hotels and large venues to create 39,000 beds.

Cuomo pointed out on Wednesday that New York state will account for roughly 16% of the total deaths in the U.S. based on the modeling from the IHME. The actual figure based on IHME’s specific online numbers is a just pinch higher at 17%.

“I don’t even understand that,” he said. “Since New York is so much higher right now.”

The governor was referring to the disproportionate number of both coronavirus cases and deaths in the state. New York currently accounts for 42.7% of the U.S.’s total 195,929 confirmed cases and for 45% of the country’s 4,310 coronavirus deaths.

“If you believe these numbers, 16,000 deaths in New York, that means you’re going to have tens of thousands of deaths outside of New York,” Cuomo said. “So to the extent people watch their nightly news in Kansas and say ‘well this is a New York problem’, that’s not what these numbers say. It says it’s a New York problem today, tomorrow it’s a Kansas problem and a Texas problem and a New Mexico problem.”

Along with the projections, Cuomo said Wednesday that 7,917 new cases of coronavirus have been confirmed across New York compared to the figures he announced Tuesday, 1,297 new hospitalizations and 391 more deaths.



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‘Welcome to the shore, now go home!’ — New Yorkers fleeing to surrounding areas get blasted by locals


Stay at home? Not the Manhattan elite.

With coronavirus bringing New York City to a virtual standstill, those with the means to get out of town are reportedly doing just that. And apparently it’s only making matters worse.

The White House Coronavirus Task Force on Tuesday said that a flare-up of coronavirus infections on Long Island in recent days suggests that New Yorkers on the move have spread the virus, and it urged those who have left the city to self-quarantine for 14 days.

Of course, there’s little doubt that there are many on the move.

For instance, the population of Southampton, an area of several villages in Long Island, has seen its population surge to an estimated 100,000 over the past couple of weeks, from just 60,000.

“I would prefer that if you are coming from New York City, a hot spot, you stay there,” Jay Schneiderman, chairman of the East End Supervisors and Mayors Association, told the New York Times. “I can’t stop you, but we’d love people to heed the advice of the CDC and stay home.”

The same sentiment could be heard from frustrated locals in the Catskills, the Hamptons and southern New Jersey, where the popular “Welcome to the shore — now go home” bumper sticker takes on a more urgent meaning. Basically, don’t bring your problems to us.

Long Beach Township Mayor Joseph Mancini, who said his little town has tripled in size from 15,000 residents to 45,000, packaged it in much more friendly terms.

“We all love the summer people,” he said. “They drive our economy. But when they come down here now, the services here aren’t geared up for them.”

Less-measured messages have echoed across social media in recent days, as well:

One Catskills Facebook page joined the growing chorus.

“The only cases in Greene County were brought here from downstate people so stay down there,” one man wrote in a post cited by the New York Times. “Just because you have a second home up here doesn’t mean you have the right to put us at risk.”

Greene County’s website said it has “NO hospital!” and told prospective travelers that visiting “from any area at this time is inadvisable and is highly discouraged.”

In the tony Hamptons, tensions are rising between the year-rounders and the summer super-rich who are coming out social distancing, and maybe even social climbing, in their seaside estates.

“There’s not a vegetable to be found in this town right now,” one resident told the New York Post. “It’s these elitist people who think they don’t have to follow the rules.” Another said perhaps it’s time to “blow up the bridges” to keep them out.

And they just keep coming. With some pretty wild demands.

Real estate agent Dylan Eckardt said he’s gotten calls from diplomats and CEO types, including one who said he’d pay anything for a nine-bedroom house with a pool and a tennis court.

“I found him a house that’s a little over 15,000 square feet — $150,000 for 50 days,” Eckardt told the Wall Street Journal, adding that the new tenant brought his own cleaning crew. They spent eight hours in zip-up suits basically sterilizing the house.

It’s not just in the New York area, either. Here’s a not-so-friendly message from Florida, which has seen a steady influx of visitors looking to ride this thing out in warmer weather.

Fear of the spreading virus is understandable considering the latest stats. As of Wednesday night, there were nearly 66,000 confirmed cases in the U.S. with 926 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. New York state is home to about half of the overall number of cases.





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